Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
