A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
